The Israeli-Iranian buildup to war

The context

Since the 7 October 2023 Hamas attacks, there has been a step change in tensions across the Middle East. There has been a shift from bubbling proxy confrontations towards open conflict between Israel and Iran, culminating in the June 2025 Israeli-Iranian war and US strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities.

For clients with assets, exposure, or influence in the region, the critical question wasn’t just what was happening, but what aspects mattered, and what would happen next.

Our foresight

Rather than delivering more conflict updates, we focused on exploring the motivations, intentions and objectives of key decision making and influencing actors in Israel, Iran, the US and across the region.

By combining our reporting networks to provide regular in-depth insight with the experienced judgement of our advisers and team, we were able to give our clients early insight and plausible scenarios into how strategic ambitions, domestic politics and external pressures were shaping the decisions being made.

What we projected

Israel’s real intent

We assessed that Netanyahu would seek to widen the conflict as a deliberate strategy to reset Israel’s long-term security architecture in Israel’s favour.

Houthi assertiveness to achieve relevance

We identified early that the Houthis were using the crisis to raise their geopolitical profile, targeting Red Sea shipping to force recognition and drive negotiation leverage.

Iranian overconfidence

We projected that Iran’s shift from proxy warfare to direct confrontation with Israel was rooted in overconfidence that would lead to miscalculation. This left Tehran exposed, accelerating escalation to the highest threat to regime survival in decades.

Trump’s opportunism

We foresaw that a weakened Iran would present an irresistible opportunity for Trump to reassert U.S. dominance and delay nuclear progress, a calculated move with domestic political upside and perceived limited cost.

The result

Macro investor clients were equipped with rolling 3-6 month scenario outlooks, which they were able to feed directly into commodity exposure and inflation hedging models.

Government clients received independent assessments and strategic policy briefings aligned with each phase of the conflict. These provided experienced perspectives and early warnings to enable faster policy formulation and calibrated diplomatic engagement.

Corporate clients used our projections to reassess exposure in the region and anticipate disruptions to supply chains, particularly in the Red Sea corridor.

Why it matters

Because rather than focusing solely on the events themselves, we concentrated on the intentions driving them. Our intelligence and considered judgement enabled clients to grasp the motivations behind key actions, allowing them to see which outcomes were more or less likely to unfold. We didn’t just provide early warning; we delivered a logical framework for understanding what would come next.