Russia-Ukraine: Will there be a ceasefire?

The context

In August 2025, on the eve of President Putin’s summit with President Trump, speculation over a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, and a grand bargain between the US and Russia, dominated the headlines. Our clients, with exposure to European and Ukrainian markets, needed clear judgement: to separate the measured from the excited, the evidenced from the speculative.

Our foresight

Drawing on our expertise, networks, and real-world experience, we were able to:

• Provide measured advice on the low likelihood of a ceasefire announcement, despite market volatility.
• Use our network to confidently refute well-sourced but ultimately misplaced reporting on Russian intentions.
• Apply our understanding of intelligence tradecraft to dismantle speculative commentary that was being passed off as primary reporting.

What we projected

Russia’s war objectives remain unchanged. Despite increased pressure from both the US and Russia’s domestic economy, Putin remains unwilling to make substantive ceasefire commitments.

But Moscow would continue its use of “performative diplomacy”, breadcrumbing progress through symbolic but reversible steps.

European economic pressure against Moscow is likely to persist and intensify, despite economic costs.

But the US administration will continue to manage congressional pressure, and resist further sanctions tightening, whilst overlooking enforcement.

The result

Our clients avoided being misled by market overreactions, speculation or poorly sourced reporting. Instead, they gained a grounded understanding of the Russia-Ukraine conflict trajectory which could enable:

Macro investors to see where there was opportunity for potential upside within short-term market volatility caused by over-optimistic calls on the potential for a deal.

Defence-sector investors to better understand the real potential for a peace event in Europe and identify what the key drivers are for the continuation of the war.

Corporates exposed to Ukrainian and neighbouring markets validated their procurement and resilience strategies against the realities of a protracted conflict.

Why it matters

Because what really drives decision making over the war in Ukraine is repeatedly misunderstood. It was through combining our networks with disciplined assessment methods, grounded in first hand operational and intelligence assessment experience, that we could more effectively provide clients with clarity on how Russian intent, Ukrainian resilience, and Western response will continue to shape political risk, fiscal priorities, and industrial demand across Europe.